Prediction markets overtook onchain playing for the primary time within the opening quarter of 2026, recording $36.6 billion in quantity in contrast with playing’s $14 billion, based on TRM Labs.
In a Wednesday report, the blockchain intelligence firm stated the shift adopted a fast growth in each sectors. Onchain playing reached $51 billion in 2025, whereas prediction markets climbed to $54 billion, placing the 2 classes at comparable scale heading into 2026.
Nonetheless, onchain playing remained close to document ranges. Quarterly playing quantity reached an all-time excessive of $15 billion within the fourth quarter of 2025, then held at $14 billion in Q1 2026.
Neither onchain playing nor prediction markets retreated together with the broader crypto markets. Volumes remained elevated by way of the 2025-2026 market correction.
Annual onchain wagering quantity. Supply: TRM Labs
A TRM Labs spokesperson informed Cointelegraph that playing volumes have surged in the course of the current market pullback due to the “sticky and increasing exercise of a loyal consumer base.”
“This doesn’t imply something about focus danger in itself, since there’s fairly a big playing consumer base,” the spokesperson stated. “It exhibits how a constant consumer exercise can insulate an business from a market pullback and actually drive development.”
Playing and prediction markets face completely different dangers
TRM stated playing platforms and prediction markets are more and more converging on shared stablecoin infrastructure, however their monetary crime dangers stay distinct.
Prediction markets comparable to Polymarket and Kalshi function as peer-to-peer markets for binary outcomes, whereas playing platforms comparable to Stake, WINk and Rollbit function extra like conventional casinos, with the platform setting odds and sustaining a home edge.
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TRM stated prediction markets have attracted scrutiny over insider buying and selling, whereas playing platforms are extra uncovered to cash laundering dangers.
“Playing providers and prediction markets carry distinct inherent monetary crime dangers, and corporations ought to calibrate controls accordingly,” a TRM Labs spokesperson informed Cointelegraph.
Informal bettors drive development alongside whales
TRM stated greater than 2 million private wallets interacted with playing platforms between January 2022 and March 2026.
The agency divided these customers into 5 behavioral teams. “Dabblers” made 5 or fewer transactions and disappeared inside a month, whereas “Informal Bettors” averaged 18 transactions throughout eight lively days. “Occasion Chasers” returned round main sporting occasions, whereas “Each day Grinders” gambled on a minimum of 30% of the times of their lively tenure. “Excessive Rollers,” the highest-value cohort, averaged $13,558 per wager and $378,000 in lifetime playing quantity.
The agency discovered that quantity stays closely concentrated amongst high-value customers, with Excessive Rollers representing 6.3% of private playing wallets however driving 91.8% of private pockets playing quantity since 2022.
Regardless of this, TRM stated the fastest-growing consumer classes usually are not solely high-stakes bettors. Informal Bettors’ month-to-month quantity rose from $17 million in January 2022 to $188 million by March 2026, whereas Each day Grinders’ quantity elevated 12x over the identical interval.
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