Key takeaways:
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ETH ETFs have opened entry, however flows stay cyclical.
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SOL’s plumbing is about: CME futures are dwell, with choices slated for Oct. 13 (pending approval).
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The SEC’s generic requirements now permit quicker spot-commodity ETP listings past BTC and ETH.
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For SOL to outperform ETH, it should want sustained creations, tight hedging, actual onchain utilization and continued developer momentum.
It’s true that Ether (ETH) already has the pinnacle begin within the exchange-traded fund (ETF) race: Spot Ether ETFs started buying and selling on July 23, 2024, attracting roughly $107 million in first-day internet inflows and opening a mainstream path for buyers by brokers and retirement accounts.
Nonetheless, Solana’s (SOL) market infrastructure is catching up. The Chicago Mercantile Alternate (CME) launched Solana futures on March 17, 2025, with choices slated for Oct. 13.
In September 2025, the US Securities and Alternate Fee adopted “generic itemizing requirements” that streamline how exchanges can listing spot commodity exchange-traded merchandise (ETPs), doubtlessly widening the gate past Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether.
Additionally, outdoors the US, SOL already trades in regulated funding wrappers by Europe’s 21Shares and Canada’s 3iQ.
With that entry already in place, the query is whether or not a US SOL ETF can gas lasting demand that enables Solana to outperform Ether on each worth and fundamentals.
Earlier than tackling that, let’s set the context.
What ETH ETFs modified, and what they didn’t
Spot Ether ETFs started buying and selling within the US on July 23, 2024. On the primary day, they recorded roughly $1 billion in buying and selling quantity and about $107 million in internet inflows, opening a mainstream channel for buyers equivalent to registered funding advisers (RIAs) and establishments. Nonetheless, this nonetheless trailed the size of Bitcoin’s ETF debut in January.
Flows since then have been cyclical. By way of mid-2025, ETH skilled durations of internet creations punctuated by outflows. By late August and mid-September 2025, studies confirmed renewed power, with multi-week inflows into Ether merchandise that lifted complete crypto property underneath administration (AUM). In brief, ETFs improved entry, however they didn’t get rid of market cycles.
At occasions in 2025, Ether outperformed many large-cap crypto property, supported by regular ETF demand and visual institutional and treasury accumulation. This sample means that whereas ETFs don’t alter core community fundamentals, they will affect which asset leads throughout phases of capital rotation.
One design alternative nonetheless issues: US ETH ETFs launched with out staking, limiting their revenue potential in contrast with holding native ETH instantly. The SEC is actively reviewing proposals to permit staking, however, as of October 2025, has delayed selections throughout a number of issuers. If staking is permitted — even partially — it might shift the trade-offs between ETF holdings and direct possession.
Do you know? US exchanges publish an indicative internet asset worth (iNAV) roughly each 15 seconds, permitting merchants to see the place an ETF ought to be priced intraday.
Solana in the present day: Utilization, progress and dangers
In Q2 2025, Solana generated over $271 million in community income, marking its third consecutive quarter main all layer-1 (L1) and layer-2 (L2) chains. In June, information confirmed Solana matched the mixed month-to-month energetic addresses of all different main L1s and L2s — robust indicators of utilization depth.
In January 2025, Solana processed $59.2 billion in peer-to-peer (P2P) stablecoin transfers, a pointy rebound from the lows of late 2024. The availability of USDC on Solana stands at roughly $9.35 billion, whereas the community’s complete stablecoin provide greater than doubled in early 2025, climbing from $5.2 billion in January to $11.7 billion in February.
Even so, Ethereum nonetheless carried the vast majority of worth moved by stablecoins year-to-date — roughly 60% as of mid-2025 — displaying Solana’s positive factors are significant however not but dominant.
Price and pace stay key attracts: Sub-cent charges, 400-millisecond block occasions and excessive throughput have made Solana a hub for decentralized alternate (DEX) and perpetual futures exercise — and a focus of 2025’s memecoin growth. That quantity helps liquidity but additionally concentrates flows in speculative segments.
Two structural dangers are price watching.
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Reliability: A five-hour outage on Feb. 6, 2024, required a coordinated restart and shopper patch (v1.17.20).
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Regulation: Previous US SEC complaints have referenced Solana as an unregistered safety — a characterization the Solana Basis disputes. Outcomes on this space stay extremely policy-dependent.
Do you know? CME plans each day, month-to-month and quarterly expiries for SOL choices, increasing hedging menus for ETF market makers.
What a US SOL ETF would doubtless change
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Entry and flows: Approval would open SOL to mainstream brokerage and retirement channels utilized by registered funding advisers (RIAs). That reduces operational friction for allocators and broadens the client base past crypto-native venues.
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Market-making and hedging: Listed derivatives give approved contributors (APs) and market makers the instruments to hedge creations and redemptions, in addition to to run foundation or relative-value trades. These mechanics assist hold ETF costs near their NAV and assist day-one liquidity.
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Regulatory runway: The SEC’s “generic itemizing requirements” widen the trail past BTC and ETH if sponsors fulfill the foundations.
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Ex-US demand alerts: Already, Canada’s 3iQ Solana Staking ETF (TSX: SOLQ) and Europe’s 21Shares Solana Staking ETP (SIX: ASOL) present that regulated funding wrappers for Solana can entice investor curiosity.
Do you know? In Europe, cryptocurrencies can’t be included in Undertakings for Collective Funding in Transferable Securities (UCITS) ETFs, so issuers use ETPs as an alternative. That’s the reason “ETP” seems on SIX and London Inventory Alternate (LSE) tickers.
Can SOL really outperform ETH?
The bull case (six to 12 months post-approval)
A well timed US spot SOL ETF with robust early internet creations might outpace Ether on complete return.
Two key levers:
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Broader entry: RIAs and brokerages acquire publicity underneath the brand new generic itemizing requirements.
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Improved market mechanics: Tighter spreads and better capability as APs hedge by way of CME Solana futures and listed choices.
The bottom case
Even when a SOL ETF launches strongly, flows could revert to monitoring basic danger urge for food. Ether retains a structural institutional edge — because of its longer historical past, deeper allocator familiarity and established ecosystem. Weekly fund circulate fluctuations in crypto replicate how relative efficiency could also be uneven reasonably than decisively tilted towards SOL.
The bear case
Timelines slipping or eligibility questions underneath the US SEC framework might dampen expectations. Alternatively, liquidity could soften, and APs might run smaller books regardless of the provision of derivatives, limiting creations. In that situation, Solana would underperform Ether, which already advantages from a extra mature distribution.
Additionally it is price noting that some regulators have expressed issues about decreased case-by-case scrutiny underneath the generic itemizing requirements, including coverage uncertainty for property past Bitcoin and Ether.
What to regulate
If a US spot SOL ETF is permitted, the true story may very well be what occurs subsequent.
The important thing alerts to observe are simple. Do creations and redemptions present persistent demand? Does CME open curiosity and choices exercise deepen liquidity? Do onchain metrics like energetic customers, payment income, stablecoin settlement and developer progress maintain up past speculative bursts? If these needles transfer collectively, the percentages of SOL outpacing ETH rise sharply.
A Solana ETF would take away a serious entry bottleneck and arrive with stronger market infrastructure than previous cycles. But Ether has already confirmed it may entice billions by ETFs whereas anchoring the institutional dialog.
ETH stays the benchmark, and its flows — although cyclical — display its endurance. Whether or not Solana actually outperforms will rely much less on hype and extra on whether or not ETF inflows translate into sustained onchain adoption.
This text doesn’t include funding recommendation or suggestions. Each funding and buying and selling transfer includes danger, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a choice.
