Actor Michael B. Jordan overtook Timothée Chalamet on prediction market platform Polymarket as almost definitely to win “Greatest Actor” on the 2026 Oscars awards present, together with his odds rising by over 4x since March 1.
Final week, the “Sinners” star received one of the best actor award on the Actor Awards, previously generally known as the Display Actors Guild Awards, or SAG.
Every week out from the Academy Awards, Polymarket merchants place Jordan’s odds of profitable the award at about 47%, whereas Chalamet is a detailed second at 45%, Leonardo DiCaprio is at 5%, Wagner Moura has 4% odds and Ethan Hawke has only one% odds. Chalamet was within the lead till Saturday.
Jordan was nominated for an Oscar for his function as twin brothers Smoke and Stack Moore within the 2025 vampire horror movie “Sinners.” Chalamet was nominated for his function in “Marty Supreme,” a fictional drama movie a couple of desk tennis participant.
The Academy of Movement Image Arts and Sciences awards present will air on March 15, and the prediction marketplace for Oscars’ Greatest Actor has over $5.6 million in buying and selling quantity on Polymarket on the time of publication.
Prediction market platforms got here to the fore throughout the 2024 US elections and proceed to realize momentum, with crypto exchanges integrating prediction markets into their platforms and conventional monetary corporations additionally eyeing prediction market-style merchandise.
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Polymarket plans US app rollout this yr, however regulatory hurdles stay
Polymarket opened up its software for choose, waitlisted US customers in December 2025, with a full rollout of a US-regulated platform anticipated later in 2026.
Nonetheless, prediction market platforms proceed to face scrutiny from some state-level regulators in the USA, who argue that they’ve the authority to manage occasion contracts.
In February 2026, Polymarket filed swimsuit towards the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, arguing that the state-level playing regulator has no authority over prediction markets and that this authority rests solely with the federal Commodity Futures Buying and selling Fee (CFTC).
The lawsuit may set a authorized precedent on whether or not prediction markets are regulated solely on the federal degree or if oversight is shared between federal and state authorities.
Polymarket and Kalshi are additionally dealing with elevated regulatory scrutiny within the state of Nevada after a federal choose rejected arguments that the Commodity Alternate Act (CEA) and CFTC forestall state regulators from exercising oversight over prediction markets.
Each platforms are reportedly exploring new fundraising rounds that would worth the businesses at round $20 billion every, roughly double their most up-to-date valuations.
Every has held preliminary discussions with potential traders about elevating recent capital on the elevated valuation, the Wall Avenue Journal reported on Friday, citing folks accustomed to the matter. The report famous that the negotiations stay at an early stage and will not end in offers or safe the focused valuation.
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