The Division of Mineral Assets and Power (DMRE) has reiterated its intention of securing Cupboard approval for a brand new Built-in Useful resource Plan (IRP) for electrical energy by the top of March after releasing a remodelled draft plan on Tuesday.
Dubbed IRP2024, the up to date plan features a reference case and situations that differ materially from these contained within the draft IRP2023 launched in January, resulting in some requires extra time for consultations.
A major change within the new-look plan pertains to the assumptions used for the power availability issue (EAF) arising from Eskom’s coal fleet, dramatically altering the outlook for safety of provide for the quick future.
The EAF base case is now assumed at between 66% and 72% for the interval from 2024 to 2050, albeit with a declining coal contribution over the interval as vegetation are decommissioned.
The planners have, nonetheless, included one situation the place the lifetime of sure energy stations is prolonged from 50 to 60 years to deal with a 15 GW “second cliff” from 2032 to 2042, with the primary 5 GW cliff to come up in 2030 as models that have been meant to have already been decommissioned within the 2020s are lastly shut.
That delayed shutdown situation additionally carries the very best complete system price, although, comply with by a situation the place South Africa commits to 2.5 GW of nuclear.
Along with an expectation of solely reasonable demand development of 1.5% to 2% over the long run, the revised EAF implies that the draft IRP2023 situation of ongoing loadshedding till at the least 2027 is now averted.
Within the remodelled IRP, the danger of unserved power is addressed by way of each the revised EAF and what the DMRE describes as 38.5 GW of “dedicated” capability to be added by 2030.
38.5 GW COMMITTED
The division’s Sonwabo Damba defined that the 38.5 GW pipeline included each private and non-private unbiased energy producer capability, in addition to Eskom tasks. It additionally assumes ongoing development in rooftop photo voltaic PV capability from 5.9 GW presently to 11.3 GW by 2030.
Additionally assumed to be dedicated is 6 GW of combined-cycle gasoline turbine (CCGT) era for which Ministerial determinations have been Gazetted, together with Eskom’s controversial 3 GW Richards Bay CCGT mission.
The remainder of the dedicated capability included within the remodelled plan to 2030 is 7.8 GW of utility scale photo voltaic PV, 7.2 GW of wind, 4.2 GW of storage, 1.4 GW arising from the completion of the 2 remaining Kusile models and modest extra capability arising from the risk-mitigation spherical, sans any powerships.
GAS & WIND FEATURE STRONGLY
Whereas there isn’t any second horizon within the new plan, the reference case for the interval from 2031 to 2050 continues to incorporate a major gas-to-power allocation, as was the case within the IRP2023.
This consists of 11.3 GW of CCGT, alongside 13.8 GW of open cycle gasoline turbine capability. The gasoline allocation within the reference case relies on a gasoline worth of $15/GJ and a relentless rand/greenback change charge of R18.35.
A reference case with no dedicated CCGT has additionally been included, and continues to yield a excessive gas-to-power allocation to 2050, however at a decrease general price.
The modest allocation to onshore wind outlined within the draft IRP2023 has been overturned within the remodelled version, with a 76.4 GW allocation within the reference case; a growth that the South African Wind Power Affiliation (SAWEA) instantly welcomed.
“We’re excited to see that wind power will characteristic because the prevalent know-how in South Africa’s future power combine.
“This enables the business to reply with plans to construct capability in the long run to speed up wind power as a part of the power combine,” SAWEA CEO Niveshen Govender mentioned.
Photo voltaic PV, against this, varieties a much smaller a part of the combo outlined within the revamped reference case at 24.3 GW; a considerably stunning growth in mild of the know-how’s quickly falling prices, its surging deployment in the remainder of the world and South Africa’s photo voltaic benefits.
Battery storage’s contribution can also be surprisingly modest within the reference case at solely 4.4 GW, however is materially increased at 10.9 MW beneath a situation the place extra optimistic prices assumptions have been modelled.
Pumped storage and nuclear don’t characteristic within the reference case in any respect, however the DMRE has modelled a ‘case for nuclear’ primarily based on an preliminary dedication to including 2.5 GW of nuclear in 2035 and 2036.
“This case requires that 6 GW of gasoline is commissioned by 2030 to make sure system adequacy till nuclear is offered, after which a construct charge of 1.5 GW can be required every year between 2035 and 2042,” the DMRE mentioned.
Carbon emissions and water use fall beneath all the situations introduced, because the position of coal falls over time.
Nonetheless, the tempo of the decline could be far slower beneath a situation the place Camden, Kriel, Hendrina, Grootvlei and Arnot have been retired after 60 years of operation quite than 50 years.
TECHNICAL DISCUSSIONS
South African Nationwide Power Improvement Institute CEO Dr Titus Mathe mentioned engagements on the draft IRP2024, together with in-depth technical discussions, would proceed for the remainder of the week consistent with a aim of wrapping up consultations by November 30.
The plan would then be subjected to an inner overview and an exterior evaluation by a Chinese language power planning specialist firm.
DMRE’s Thabang Audat additionally confirmed that the IRP2024 could be consulted on the Nationwide Financial Improvement and Labour Council and be subjected to a socioeconomic influence evaluation earlier than continuing to intergovernmental our bodies the place coverage changes can be mentioned.
It might then enter the Cupboard course of with the aim of getting it permitted by Cupboard by the top of March.
The truncated nature of the general public session course of has raised eyebrows, nonetheless, with the Organisation Undoing Tax Abuse having already formally objected and with others anticipated to do likewise.
