Bitcoin’s sharp correction in the beginning of the month could signify a vital “midway level” within the present bear market, based on Kaiko Analysis.
Bitcoin (BTC) fell to $59,930 on Friday, marking its lowest degree since October 2024, earlier than the re-election of US President Donald Trump, based on TradingView information.
The decline suggests the market has moved out of the euphoric post-halving part and into what Kaiko described as a traditionally typical bear market interval that lasts about 12 months earlier than a brand new accumulation part begins.
In a analysis observe shared with Cointelegraph on Monday, Kaiko mentioned Bitcoin’s 32% crash was probably the most important correction for the reason that 2024 Bitcoin halving and will mark the “midway level” of the present bear market.
“Evaluation of on-chain metrics and comparative efficiency throughout tokens reveals a market approaching vital technical help ranges that may decide whether or not the four-year cycle framework stays intact,” Kaiko mentioned.
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Kaiko’s report highlighted a number of rising onchain bear market indicators, together with a 30% drop in combination spot crypto buying and selling quantity throughout the ten main centralized exchanges, from round $1 trillion in October 2025 all the way down to $700 billion in November.
On the similar time, mixed Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) futures open curiosity declined from $29 billion to $25 billion over the previous week, a 14% discount that Kaiko mentioned displays ongoing deleveraging.
Whereas Bitcoin has realigned with the historic four-year halving cycle for the reason that starting of the yr, figuring out the depth of the present bear market is advanced, as “many catalysts that fueled BTC’s rally to $126,000 are nonetheless in impact,” mentioned Shawn Younger, chief analyst, MEXC Analysis.
“With oversold indicators rising on a number of timeframes, the rebound dialog round BTC is extra a query of when, not if,” Younger mentioned, including that Bitcoin could also be coming into a brand new cycle that may solely change into clear over the following yr.
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Is $60,000 the bear market backside?
The important thing query for buyers is whether or not the dip to $60,000 represents the low of the present bear market. The extent roughly aligns with Bitcoin’s 200-week shifting common, which has traditionally acted as long-term help.
Nonetheless, extra market volatility is anticipated within the absence of crypto-specific market catalysts, Nicolai Sondergaard, analysis analyst at crypto intelligence platform Nansen, instructed Cointelegraph, including:
“With that mentioned, it’s nonetheless very onerous to say if it means we’re going again to the standard 4-year cycle. I’ve seen many outstanding figures within the house air the thought, however equally many who don’t suppose so.”
Nonetheless, Kaiko pointed to a 52% retracement from Bitcoin’s earlier all-time excessive being “unusually shallow” in comparison with earlier bear market cycles.
A 60% to 68% retracement would “align extra intently” with historic drawdowns, which means a Bitcoin cycle backside round $40,000 to $50,000, Kaiko mentioned.
Nonetheless, some market contributors argue that $60,000 already marked a neighborhood backside. Analyst and MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe known as the crash to $60,000 the native market backside for Bitcoin’s worth, citing a file low in investor sentiment and a vital low within the relative power index, which sank to values final seen in 2018 and 2020.
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